The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced yesterday that it has reversed Nigeria’s growth projection, citing low outputs from the agricultural and oil sectors as key factors. This statement was made by the IMF’s Chief Economist, Mr. Pierre-Olivier Gourninchas, during the World Economic Outlook press briefing at the ongoing IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, DC.
Gourninchas attributed the poor production levels to flooding affecting agriculture and insecurity impacting oil production. He stated, “We reversed Nigeria’s growth by 2 percent because things are volatile. The reason for the reversal is precisely because of issues in agriculture due to flooding and there are issues about production of oil relative to security which pushed down oil production.”
As a result, the IMF has lowered Nigeria’s economic growth projection to 2.9 percent, down from the 3.1 percent forecast made in July. Earlier, in April, the IMF had projected a growth rate of 3.3 percent for 2024.
When asked about the impact of the federal government’s decision to remove fuel subsidies—an action that has significantly affected Nigerians—Gourninchas stated that he did not have immediate data on the issue and would need to review the numbers.
In its broader report on global economic outlook, the IMF noted, “Global growth is expected to remain stable yet underwhelming,” while highlighting disruptions in production and shipping of commodities, particularly oil, and extreme weather events as major contributors to the revised forecasts for emerging markets and developing economies.
The report also emphasized the necessity for structural reforms to enhance medium-term growth prospects while ensuring support for vulnerable populations remains a priority.