The idea of holding elections in Ukraine amidst the ongoing war with Russia has sparked significant debate, especially as the country faces a delicate balance between maintaining unity in the face of external aggression and the democratic principle of electoral process. As martial law remains in effect and the war continues, a presidential election that was due in 2024 has been suspended. However, the prospect of elections has resurfaced, fueled by speculation and strategic considerations.
Several factors are driving the renewed speculation about the possibility of elections later this year. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s rising popularity, particularly after he was criticized by former U.S. President Donald Trump, has led some to believe that now might be the ideal time for him to secure a second term. A recent poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) showed that Zelensky’s approval ratings had increased, with 69% of Ukrainians expressing trust in him, suggesting he might have an advantage in the event of a vote. Furthermore, some diplomats and political analysts speculate that holding elections could strengthen Zelensky’s position in any future peace talks with Russia, effectively countering Russia’s assumption that Zelensky would be replaced.
Additionally, the logistics of conducting an election in wartime are complicated, but not impossible. Some have suggested that digital solutions, such as the Diia app—already used for services like voting in the Eurovision Song Contest—could allow Ukrainians living abroad or displaced by the war to participate safely and efficiently. However, the app would need new legislation, and there are concerns about its security, as well as issues with voter registers being incomplete or outdated.
On the other hand, many are opposed to the idea of elections during this period of martial law. There are practical concerns about the risks of holding elections during the war, including the possibility of undermining unity by introducing political divisions or giving Russia an opportunity to exploit propaganda. Moreover, some argue that Ukrainians themselves are not eager for elections at this time. The KIIS poll showed that 78% of Ukrainians opposed holding elections even after a full settlement of the war, indicating that the public’s priority may be to focus on the conflict rather than political change.
From a legal standpoint, any elections would require changes to existing laws, particularly those stipulating that elections must take place a certain number of days after martial law is lifted. Moreover, lifting martial law could have unintended consequences, including jeopardizing Ukraine’s military readiness as troops could potentially leave the front lines to vote.
In sum, while the idea of elections in Ukraine has gained some traction in recent discussions, there are significant hurdles—both logistical and political—that could make it challenging. The ultimate decision will likely hinge on both internal and external pressures, including the ongoing war effort, the need for political stability, and international expectations.
What do you think? Is holding elections in Ukraine right now a practical move, or should the focus remain solely on the war effort and national unity?