There are strong indications that the conclusion of the $1.28 billion ExxonMobil-Seplat divestment deal, along with similar transactions in Nigeria’s upstream oil sector, will enhance the country’s oil output by 21.4%, bringing production to over 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd).
In his Independence Day broadcast, President Bola Tinubu announced that the ExxonMobil-Seplat deal would be signed by the government within a few days. According to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria produced 1.4 million bpd, excluding condensate, in August 2024.
Experts interviewed by Vanguard indicated that the addition of between 300,000 bpd and 400,000 bpd from condensate, along with increased output from ExxonMobil and Agip—already acquired by Oando—could elevate Nigeria’s total output to approximately 1.7 million bpd.
Mazi Colman Obasi, the National President of the Oil and Gas Service Providers Association of Nigeria (OGSPAN), remarked, “The ExxonMobil/Seplat deal has been on the drawing board for a while. It is, therefore, a good development to conclude it as soon as possible, especially as it is likely to lead to increased oil and gas production.”
Another expert, who chose to remain anonymous, emphasized the deal’s significance, stating, “This would enable Nigeria to hit its future budget targets. The nation had based the 2024 budget on an output of 1.7 million bpd, including condensate, at $77 per barrel. However, it has been struggling to meet this target throughout the first half of the year.”
The transaction involves Seplat Energy acquiring the entire share capital of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU) from ExxonMobil for $1.28 billion and has faced legal disputes. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited initially filed a lawsuit to block the deal on July 5, 2022. This led to the matter being referred to arbitration by the court on August 3, 2022.
However, following a directive from the president to the Ministry of State for Petroleum Resources and NNPC on May 28, a settlement agreement was signed on May 30, resolving the divestment issue and paving the way for the approval of the Seplat and ExxonMobil deal.